Britain is on course for a busier year of inbound travel and a thinner one for the visitors who usually spend the most. VisitBritain forecasts 44.2 million overseas visits in 2026 and £33.9 billion of spending. Both are 2% higher than 2025 in cash terms. After inflation, spending is forecast to fall by 1%.
The lost ground is long-haul. VisitBritain says July and August inbound flight arrivals were down on 2025, with European source markets holding up better than distant ones. It cites an Oxford Economics view that Western Europe’s inbound arrivals grow 6% this year and global arrivals grow 4%, and it expects the UK to lose share. The forecast names the Iran conflict as the main near-term risk: higher oil prices, dearer jet fuel and less room in household budgets.
What that means for London
Hotels, airlines and inbound operators in London are not looking at a collapse in volume. They are looking at a mix that leans toward short-haul Europe, where the trip is cheaper and the spend per visitor is lower. VisitBritain says the autumn outlook is better than the summer, and that long-haul markets would be expected to recover next year if the conflict and the fuel squeeze ease. It will not publish a 2027 forecast until the end of 2026.
